"Hard times hiding in plain sight"

 

That's the headline for the latest Global Macro Update newsletter from Mauldin Economics.  I'll include an excerpt from the transcript of a video interview with Dr. Lacy Hunt, and embed the entire thing after that.  It's worth reading the full transcript and/or watching the full video.

They're hard times, not only domestically, but for the global economy as well. I think that the national accounts do suggest the economy is growing well, but the national accounts have a major disconnect in the United States, and there's good reason for why they shouldn't be doing well. We've recently constructed a weighted and detrended money supply aggregate for the United States, China, Japan, the EU, and the United Kingdom. This aggregate over the last four years is declining very, very sharply.

So, when you look at actual M2 growth for the last four years versus detrended, we're substantially in negative territory. What that means is that the economy is far below what we would call the stationary growth rate, the STR, and it is very substantially negative. It suggests that the economy is going to experience a sustained period of subpar economic growth and declining inflation. That's the condition. Now, normally, when you have a severe monetary contraction, the sequence is that first of all, the money growth comes down and then you get a deceleration in economic activity and then you get a deceleration in inflation. That's the pattern. There's virtually hardly any exceptions to that rule.

Money leads, GDP is coincident, and the inflation rate is lagging. That, by the way, is the case in the four major foreign economies. Money growth has collapsed. It's brought down economic activity in Japan, China, the EU, and the UK. In the United States, we've had a collapse in monetary growth on the terms in the way in which I measure it. We've had a dramatic deceleration in inflation, what I would call a contra-normal cyclical development. You've had the inflation rate come down without the GDP declining, and that doesn't usually work that way. Now, in economics, quantity effects and price effects both convey knowledge. When economic conditions are weakening, you expect to see the broad volumetric measures to deteriorate.

But when economic activity is weakening, you experience a sharp decline in the inflation rate. Well, the inflation rate has dropped more than it typically does during a recession and immediately after with the GDP still rising. I think that what we're witnessing is a very broad and very basic disconnect between the national accounts and many measures of the economy.

Take for example, one of the things that we've always been able to do for this economy is we've had affordable homes and cars for the vast majority of our people. Yet if you look at the vehicle sales, the new home sales, existing home sales, they're all down very substantially from their peaks of the last five years. Vehicle sales in the teens. Existing and new home sales down in the 35% to 40% range. Very, very broad disconnect.

. . .

The inflation rate is dropping, but the inflation rate that ensued from the pandemic, the extraordinary and unwise coordination of monetary and fiscal policy has left us with a very serious overhang of high prices in the automotive and housing sectors. So, if you look at the real weekly earnings of 120 million salaried and full-time employees, you'll see that in the 16 months of this expansion, those folks have experienced a 2% rate of decline.

At the same time, as a consequence of the inflation, you are left with these inordinately high prices for new cars and homes. They're roughly 20% higher than they were prior to the pandemic, and you've left them unaffordable for the vast majority of our people. So, when you say the inflation rate is coming down, it's true, but that's the marginal effect. We're still hung with these inordinately high prices that arose during the pandemic response. As a matter of fact, although the national income figures have been revised to reflect a much stronger position, if consumers were really in good shape, they would be able to afford the higher cars and the higher home. They're not.

In addition, we're seeing a very sharp increase in the delinquency rate on consumer installment loans and on automobile loans. The critical 90-day rate has just risen to new peak levels. We're back where we were in 2010, 2011. We've seen a substantial increase in bankruptcy rates. The only category that has not experienced rising delinquency rates is the student loans where they were in some type of deferment or folks were in some sort of view that they were going to be forgiven the loans, but the Supreme Court has choked all of that off. Now here we are in October and the deferments that were granted during the pandemic have expired.

So, the consumer has been spared that burden. But, by not having to pay their student loans, it lent a degree of strength to some of the consumer spending areas that would not have occurred, but that stimulus is no longer behind us. So, the consumer is in far worse shape than it is generally.

. . .

Small business is saying the same thing that the consumers are. One final point, if you look at the latest surveys from the Business Roundtable, which are corporate CEOs, they showed a very sharp decline in sales, hiring, and CapEx plans for the fourth quarter. So, the GDP, the national accounts look strong. They've been revised upward, but the fact of the matter is there are a great many components of the economy which are experiencing very hard times. The only country in the world that can make claim to a degree of prosperity is the United States. That is primarily centered in the national accounts, not in other objective measures, important and objective measures of wellbeing.

There's more at the link.  Here's the video, if you'd prefer to listen rather than read the transcript.

If you aren't already subscribed to Ed D'Agostino's "Global Macro Update" newsletter, and are interested in what's happening to the economies of the world as well as the USA, I highly recommend doing so.  It's free.  What have you got to lose?

Peter

The relief effort following Hurricane Helene appears to be as chaotic as that after Hurricane Katrina...

 

... and official "organization" of the effort appears to be even more shambolic.  Just read this account for one example.

Over the weekend, Seidhom began flying his helicopter over parts of North Carolina to help rescue survivors stuck in their homes or outside collapsed structures.

He also shared photos of the damage from the storm.

But on Sunday, Seidhom shared that he was “instructed to suspend operations” by an assistant fire chief from a local fire department, who cautioned Seidhom that he could be arrested for flying his helicopter in North Carolina.

Seidhom said when he was told to stop helping, he had been extracting a woman who was stuck on a collapsed mountainside.

“When she was brought to safety I was instructed that if I returned to get either person the husband or my copilot I would be arrested,” Seidhom posted on Facebook. “I’m not sure how he was trained but I don’t leave a fellow man behind… [The Fire Department needs] help and they are turning us away.”

Seidhom’s post about being threatened with arrest went viral, receiving over 500 comments at time of publication. Many rallied around him and shared messages in support.

“This is insane for them to refuse your help to save those desperate people,” a Facebook user wrote.

“This is wrong on so many levels,” another person commented. “Jordan keep up the good work. You are doing what needs to be done.”

“They are going to put you in a flooded jail with no power? That is so silly!” another Facebook user said. “I can’t believe they are doing that to you! They need more people like you trying to help get them out.”

Commenters also said they planned to report the employee for his actions.

Seidhom said the county then put a Temporary Flight Restriction in place, preventing helicopter rescues in the air.

However, Seidhom later noted the county lifted the restriction, allowing private citizens to fly again.

Seidhom is now continuing his rescue missions in areas where first responders have been receptive and appreciative of his help. He also posted that he’s working with the Carolina Emergency Response Team, a volunteer group “with special skills” that aids in emergency disaster relief.

“Over 1300 requests for service and only approximately 13 helicopters flying rescue missions. Multiple volunteer pilots from all over working together,” Seidhom posted on Facebook yesterday. “Grateful for Carolina Emergency Response Team that pulled together a command post in less than 24 hours for everyone to work out of.”

There's more at the link.

I can understand one or two screw-ups like that, but they appear to be so widespread that they're affecting everybody.  Try these headlines for size.  I can't vouch that they're all true (I presume some will be at least exaggerated, if not false), but there are enough of them to suggest a pattern.

A NOTAM has been issued by the FAA that won’t allow

anyone not approved by the state to fly aid missions

They’re SO Not There To Help

Politicians Are Hindering Rescue Efforts in North Carolina,

and One Rescuer Has Had Enough

The Scandal Of The Hour

Looting Erupts After 'Biblical Floods' Devastate Southeast US,

Sheriff Urges Residents To 'Carry With Safety Off'  

Tennessee migrant workers arrested

for allegedly looting Hurricane Helene devastation

Mayorkas warns FEMA doesn’t have

enough funding to last through hurricane season

Sorry, hurricane victims:

Harris-Biden already spent your relief funds on migrants

I could have cited many more such headlines, but those will be enough for now.  Some of them remind me of my experiences helping to coordinate rescue and recovery efforts after Hurricane Katrina in 2005, about which I've written extensively.  The same difficulties with the authorities cropped up there, as those of you who've read my account will recall.  In fact, reading current reports, it's hard not to get a sense of "deja vu all over again", as Yogi Berra famously put it.

I hope all these horror stories will help those who haven't made any preparations for emergencies to begin doing so right away;  and for those of us who have to re-examine our preparations, and improve them where we can.  Disasters like this happen every year, to a greater or lesser extent, and there's no telling when we might be in their path.  Better to be prepared than to be waiting for relief that may not arrive in time to save us.

Peter

Makes you think...

 

Found on several social media channels (origin unknown).  Clickit to biggit.

Yeah . . . that makes this old fart feel very glad he's not in uniform any longer!

Peter

Predators vs humans: NOT warm fuzzy fluffy critters

I've always been annoyed by the PETA types and their "green" allies who want to reintroduce predators to areas where they'd been eradicated, and protest that we can coexist with predators without fear of them.  Trouble is, nature really IS "red in tooth and claw", and predators have no fear of humans unless they learn it the hard way.

Two very recent examples:

Wisconsin Duck Hunter Claims He Killed Wolf In Self Defense

Man in Cañon City area claims self-defense after killing a mountain lion

The first incident was solved with a shotgun, but the second saw (of all things) a spade adapted as an emergency defensive weapon.  Kudos to the man concerned for quick thinking.

In Africa, where I was born and raised, there'd be no argument about this whatsoever.  It's an old and true saying that "In Africa, everything bites".  Another is "Africa wins again!"  If a wild animal of any sort approaches you, you put it down, no questions asked, no hesitation whatsoever.  If you don't, you'll likely find out that you're either being digested, or have contracted rabies or some other delightful disease.  I fear Americans have lost that awareness that in the wilderness, you are not at the top of the food chain - far from it!

I'm glad to read that both of the victims survived those animal attacks.  May others learn from their example.

Peter

If you want to be infuriated...

 

... take a look at the CBP One app being circulated by the Biden administrators to would-be "refugees" and "migrants".  Literally, within five minutes, with no ID, background information or verification of anything, they can set up an appointment at a border station to be processed into the USA as a refugee with an open timeline for their stay, and given access to thousands of dollars worth of government assistance from Day 1.  It's all paid for by you and I, American taxpayers.

Click here to watch and listen to the whole thing.  The video's less than two minutes long.

As a legal immigrant, having paid thousands of dollars, jumped through all sorts of bureaucratic hoops, and waited years to get first my green card, and then my US citizenship, this is utterly infuriating!  Why did I waste all that time and money when I could have spent nothing at all, and bypassed all those lines and waiting periods?

Peter

Powerless?

 

It looks like the damage wreaked by Hurricane Helene is going to last a whole lot longer than people might wish.  The electrical grid in North Carolina and Georgia looks to have suffered really severe damage.

"Distribution transformers are a bedrock component of our energy infrastructure," National Renewable Energy Laboratory researcher Killian McKenna said, who was recently quoted by PV Magazine. 

McKenna pointed out, "But utilities needing to add or replace them are currently facing high prices and long wait times due to supply chain shortages. This has the potential to affect energy accessibility, reliability, affordability—everything."

Other reasons for the transformer shortages besides power grid upgrades include raw material sourcing problems, pandemic-related supply chain woes and backlogs, labor constraints, shipping issues, and geopolitical tensions. 

Given all of this, Jesse D. Jenkins, an assistant professor and macro-energy systems engineering and policy expert at Princeton University, responded to the dire situation of a grid apocalypse playing out in the Southeast US:  "This is devastating. We do NOT have 360 substations worth of transformers and other electrical equipment sitting in stockpiles waiting to be deployed. It could take a very long time to restore power to everyone. Are we facing a Hurricane Maria-type impact on grid infrastructure?"

Making matters worse for residents of North Carolina, some X users are pointing out the Biden-Harris administration supplied transformers to Ukraine. It's unclear if these transformers were drained for US stockpiles. Meanwhile, others note that Ukraine uses a different electrical system than the US.

What's not questionable is this: Earlier this year, US ambassador to Kyiv Bridget Brink jumped for joy on X, indicating United States Agency for International Development delivered "50 voltage transformers, 9 current transformers, & 80 isolators."

There's more at the link.

I had an interesting exchange on that subject with a correspondent today.  He's a retired electrical engineer who spent his career with major utilities and power transmission systems.  He said he's hearing from former colleagues that an unspecified federal agency is approaching major power utilities in multiple states, asking them to shut down one or two sub-stations in major urban areas and make their equipment available to hurricane-affected areas.  The utilities are being reassured that this would "only" mean that they'd have to cut power for "an hour or two at a time" to nearby suburbs, rotating the load among their other sub-stations.  This would "share the survivors' load" with their customers, who would surely not complain at being asked to provide relief of this kind.  He told me that the utilities concerned (at least, the ones where he has contacts) are refusing to even consider the proposal, on the grounds that if they were to shut down local consumers because areas hundreds or even thousands of miles away had problems, those same consumers would start shooting at their trucks (and their workers) as they tried to dismantle and haul away the selected sub-stations.  Sounds to me like they know their customers!

The extent of the fallout from Hurricane Helene's damage has only just begun to be realized.  It's going to take, not months, but years to get over the worst of it.  To name just a few points:

• The demand for domestic generators in the affected areas is already off the charts, and if sub-stations can't be restored, they'll be in use for months - something consumer-grade generators are not designed to do.
• Can consumers afford the fuel cost to run them, and also to replace them when they wear out - and will replacements be available?
• Meanwhile, what happens if a major international crisis threatens or delays the ordering and/or shipment of replacement sub-station and transmission line equipment from China - apparently the only country that now manufactures much of what's needed?

Got batteries?

Peter

Submarine schadenfreude? Not so fast...

 

There's been a certain amount of schadenfreude at the news that a new Chinese nuclear submarine sank at its shipyard mooring before it could be commissioned into the People's Liberation Army Navy.  It's since been salvaged, but it's going to take a long time (months for certain, possibly a year or more) to repair or replace all the water-soaked equipment in the hull before the ship can be declared operational.

However, we shouldn't be too harsh in our judgment of what may have happened - because the USA also lost a brand-new nuclear submarine, USS Guitarro, while it was still under construction.

On 15 May 1969, Guitarro was moored in the Napa River at Mare Island Naval Shipyard while construction was still underway. At about 16:00, a civilian nuclear construction group began to calibrate the aft ballast tanks, which required them to fill the tanks with approximately 5 short tons (4.5 t) of water. Within 30 minutes, a different, non-nuclear civilian construction group began an assignment to bring Guitarro within a half-degree of trim; this entailed adding water to the forward ballast tanks to overcome a reported two-degree up-bow attitude. Until shortly before 20:00, both groups continued to add water, unaware of each other's activities.

Twice between 16:30 and 20:00, a security watch advised the non-nuclear group that Guitarro was riding so low forward that the 1.5-foot-high (0.46 m) wakes of boats operating in the Napa River were sloshing into the sonar dome manhole, but the group ignored the warnings. At 19:45, the non-nuclear group stopped adding water to the ballast tanks and began to halt work for their meal break, leaving at 20:00. At 19:50, the nuclear group completed their calibrations and began to empty the tanks aft.

At 20:30, both the nuclear group, still aboard, and the non-nuclear group, returning from their break, noticed Guitarro taking a sudden down angle which put the forward hatches underwater. Massive flooding took place through several large open hatches. Efforts between 20:30 and 20:45 to close watertight doors and hatches were largely unsuccessful because lines and cables ran through the doors and hatches, preventing them from closing. At 20:55, Guitarro sank, leaving only her sail above water, earning her the nickname "Mare Island Mud Puppy".

In an attempt to correct what they thought was an out of trim condition, the non-nuclear construction team in the forward part of the boat purposefully defeated safety measures preventing accidentally filling ballast tanks while the sub was under construction. During construction, steel plates are welded over the ballast tanks flood ports to prevent water from getting into the tanks and putting the submarine in an unsafe condition. The construction crew put a fire hose down the tank's vent pipe and forced it past the check valve.

There's more at the link.

India's first ballistic missile nuclear submarine, INS Arihant, also sank at the quayside due to human error, and took months to repair.  So, yes, China's undoubtedly embarrassed by the loss of its newest, latest-generation submarine, but it's hardly alone in human error causing such damage.  One hopes that none of the vessel's crew or shipyard workers were injured or killed in the accident.

Peter

Doofus Of The Day #1,120

 

Today's award goes to the Los Angeles Police Department, and one officer in particular.

The incident’s details were described in a lawsuit filed by the owners of a Los Angeles medical imaging center, who allege that their business was wrongly targeted by LAPD during a raid in October 2023.

. . .

The plaintiffs say the officers’ behavior was “nothing short of a disorganized circus, with no apparent rules, procedures, or even a hint of coordination.”

At one point, an officer walked into an MRI room, past a sign warning that metal was prohibited inside, with his rifle “dangling… in his right hand, with an unsecured strap,” the lawsuit said. The MRI machine’s magnetic force then allegedly sucked his rifle across the room, pinning it against the machine. MRI machines are tube-shaped scanners that use incredibly strong magnetic fields to create images of the brain, bones, joints and other internal organs.

An officer then allegedly pulled a sealed emergency release button that shut the MRI machine down, deactivating it, evaporating thousands of liters of helium gas and damaging the machine in the process. The officer then grabbed his rifle and left the room, leaving behind a magazine filled with bullets on the office floor, according to the lawsuit. 

There's more at the link.

I don't know the cost of restoring and reactivating the MRI unit, but it's got to run into tens of thousands of dollars, given the price of helium and hourly rates for specialist technician assistance.  To add insult to injury, no criminal activity or other evidence was found at the clinic.

I've had MRI's done in the past, and always - always - the technicians have warned me ahead of time not to take any metal object with me into the room.  It's a very real danger.  It's literally killed people before.  I think that cop was very fortunate that his rifle didn't discharge as a result of being snatched out of his hands like that.

As for the fruitless raid, and the antics of the officers (all captured on video by the clinic's security system) . . . when did professionalism cease to be a requirement for LAPD's officers?

Peter

Another example of hyperinflation: Lebanon

 

Here's an account of how one man experienced the hyperinflation that ravaged Lebanon less than five years ago.  It's from a Bitcoin-promoting magazine, so their "solution" to the problem is, obviously, investment in Bitcoin.  I don't agree with that, and don't recommend it - but the factual account of hyperinflation in Lebanon remains valid and valuable, despite that.  Here are some excerpts.

Before its economic collapse, Lebanon was a vibrant, cosmopolitan country, often called the "Paris of the Middle East." Its economy thrived on banking, tourism, and services, positioning it as a bridge between East and West. For Tony, this prosperity wasn’t an illusion—it was his daily life. "My life in Lebanon was extraordinary," he recalls. "I ran three thriving businesses and lived a luxurious lifestyle. Whether it was the latest cars, the best restaurants, or the hottest clubs, Beirut had it all."

Yet beneath the surface, cracks were forming. Lebanon’s banking sector, once a source of pride, was built on unsustainable practices, and the country was drowning in debt. For years, Lebanon’s central bank had pegged the Lebanese pound to the U.S. dollar at an artificially high rate, creating a false sense of stability.

This currency peg required constant inflows of dollars to maintain. When those inflows dried up, the house of cards collapsed.

In 2019, Lebanon’s banks began restricting access to savings, imposing informal capital controls without any legal framework. "Overnight, people lost access to their funds," Tony says. "You couldn’t withdraw your own money, and even if you could, it was in Lebanese pounds that were rapidly losing value."

For those unfamiliar with a currency crisis, the limitation of bank withdrawals is one of the first signs that the system is failing. The government and banks try to delay the inevitable by locking down money in the system. By then, it’s too late.

In early 2020, Lebanon defaulted on its foreign debt, and the value of the Lebanese pound plummeted. Hyperinflation set in, destroying the purchasing power of ordinary people.

Tony watched helplessly as his savings evaporated and his businesses crumbled. "I went from being a successful entrepreneur to having just $70 to my name in what felt like the blink of an eye," he recalls. "I couldn’t pay rent, school fees, or even afford basic groceries."

Hyperinflation took hold with shocking speed. "A loaf of bread that once cost 1,500 LBP shot up to over 30,000 LBP within months," Tony explains. Fuel prices were even worse. "In early 2023, a gallon of gas went from 25,000 LBP to over 500,000 LBP in just a few weeks. It was impossible to keep up with the prices."

The destruction wasn’t limited to material wealth; the psychological toll was immense. Tony describes the anxiety and panic that came with watching his hard-earned success disappear. "For the first time in my life, I didn’t know what to do. I felt completely helpless.”.

As Lebanon’s currency collapsed, so did its social fabric. People who once lived comfortable, middle-class lives suddenly found themselves struggling for survival. Basic goods became scarce, and the price of everyday items skyrocketed.

Power dynamics within communities shifted as those who controlled essentials like food and fuel gained disproportionate influence. "There were reports of gangs taking over neighborhoods, controlling access to goods and demanding protection fees," Tony recalls.

Even electricity became a luxury. With the national grid in shambles, most people had to rely on private generators, but the cost of running them was astronomical. "Monthly generator fees jumped from 200,000 LBP to over 4,000,000 LBP," Tony explains. Many families were forced to live without power for long stretches of time.

In response to the crisis, people turned to alternative forms of exchange. Bartering became common, with people trading goods and services directly. "If you couldn’t pay in cash, you might offer plumbing work in exchange for groceries," Tony says. The U.S. dollar, already widely used before the collapse, became the default currency for many transactions.

. . .

Lebanon’s crisis offers a stark warning to the rest of the world. While many people in developed countries believe that their economies are too stable to collapse in such a way, Tony’s experience should give us pause. "What happened to me could happen anywhere," he warns. "Don’t think you’re immune just because you live in a so-called stable country. The mechanics of fiat currency are the same everywhere."

Tony points to the U.S. as an example of a country that is walking the same dangerous path as Lebanon. "The U.S. national debt now exceeds $35 trillion. Since 1971, when the dollar was taken off the gold standard, the money supply has increased by over 8,000%. That kind of money printing can’t go on forever."

While the U.S. benefits from being the issuer of the world’s reserve currency, that status isn’t guaranteed indefinitely. "All fiat currencies are headed to zero eventually," Tony cautions. "Some will fail sooner than others, but they will all fail. The U.S. dollar might be the last to go, but its turn is coming."

The lessons from Lebanon’s collapse are clear: Protect your wealth before a crisis hits, and don’t assume that your government or banking system will be there to save you when things go south.

There's more at the link.

Tony doesn't discuss the external factors that precipitated Lebanon's economic decline, particularly the influx of Palestinian refugees, the Israeli invasion, and the rise of Islamic fundamentalist movements such as Hezbollah.  Those factors precipitated the banking crisis and the disintegration of Lebanese society.  Nevertheless, the impact of hyperinflation was as real there as it was in Weimar Germany, or Zimbabwe, or Venezuela, or anywhere else that's experienced it.  Basically, fiat currency becomes valueless.  If you don't have an alternative liquid asset to use in its place, you're S.O.L.  Bitcoin probably won't maintain its value, either, since its use requires a functioning electrical system and Internet connection - things that can't be guaranteed in a social meltdown.

Do note this quotation from the article:

"The U.S. national debt now exceeds $35 trillion. Since 1971, when the dollar was taken off the gold standard, the money supply has increased by over 8,000%. That kind of money printing can’t go on forever."

If you still believe the "official" US inflation rate, and believe we're safe from hyperinflation, those figures should persuade you otherwise.

Peter

The devil is in the details - doubly so for terrorists

 

Most of us know the idiom "The devil is in the details".  Hezbollah terrorists now know it as a pretty accurate assessment of why so many of them are dying.  The Financial Times reports:

The war in Syria ... created a fountain of data, much of it publicly available for Israel’s spies — and their algorithms — to digest. Obituaries, in the form of the “Martyr Posters” regularly used by Hizbollah, were one of them, peppered with little nuggets of information, including which town the fighter was from, where he was killed, and his circle of friends posting the news on social media. Funerals were even more revealing, sometimes drawing senior leaders out of the shadows, even if briefly.

A former high-ranking Lebanese politician in Beirut said the penetration of Hizbollah by Israeli or US intelligence was “the price of their support for Assad”.

“They had to reveal themselves in Syria,” he said, where the secretive group suddenly had to stay in touch and share information with the notoriously corrupt Syrian intelligence service, or with Russian intelligence services, who were regularly monitored by the Americans.

“They went from being highly disciplined and purists to someone who [when defending Assad] let in a lot more people than they should have,” said Yezid​​​​ Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center. “The complacency and arrogance was accompanied by a shift in its membership — they started to become flabby.”

. . .

Israel’s broadened focus on Hizbollah in the region was accompanied by a growing, and eventually insurmountable technical advantage — spy satellites, sophisticated drones and cyber-hacking capabilities that turn mobile phones into listening devices.

It collects so much data that it has a dedicated group, Unit 9900, which writes algorithms that sift through terabytes of visual images to find the slightest changes, hoping to identify an improvised explosive device by a roadside, a vent over a tunnel or the sudden addition of a concrete reinforcement, hinting at a bunker.

Once a Hizbollah operative is identified, his daily patterns of movements are fed into a vast database of information, siphoned off from devices that could include his wife’s cell phone, his smart car’s odometer, or his location. These can be identified from sources as disparate as a drone flying overhead, from a hacked CCTV camera feed that he happens to pass by and even from his voice captured on the microphone of a modern TV’s remote control, according to several Israeli officials.

Any break from that routine becomes an alert for an intelligence officer to sift through, a technique that allowed Israel to identify the mid-level commanders of the anti-tank squads of two or three fighters that have harassed IDF troops from across the border. At one point, Israel monitored the schedules of individual commanders to see if they had suddenly been recalled in anticipation of an attack, one of the officials said.

But each one of these processes required time and patience to develop. Over years, Israeli intelligence was able to populate such a vast target bank that in the first three days of its air campaign, its warplanes tried to take out at least 3,000 suspected Hizbollah targets, according to the IDF’s public statements.

There's more at the link.

That's a pretty impressive effort by Israel (made easier, of course, by modern computer power and the very low cost of data storage, allowing it to keep track of so many minutiae at once).  However, it's also a salutary reminder to all of us to be careful about our own privacy.  We complain about credit monitoring companies and others who keep track of every penny we spend, and where we spend it, and on what - but it's precisely that level of intrusive monitoring, across every aspect of society, that allowed Israel to attack Hezbollah so effectively.

That level of monitoring will do the same to all of us should an autocratic, controlling government want to force its citizens to behave in a certain way, and punish them if they don't obey.

That's a scary thought . . . but it's the reality in which we live right now.  It's why I, and many who feel as I do, prefer to pay cash for most of my purchases, and leave my cellphone at home on random, unpredictable occasions, and purchase privately rather than through big corporate vendors whenever possible.  It may not help much, but any sand I can throw in the gears of Big Brother is a worthwhile effort, IMHO.  I wish everyone would do the same.

Peter

Animals to make you laugh

 

The finalists for this year's Nikon Comedy Wildlife Awards have been announced.  Forty photographs made it through to the final round.  Here's just one example from among them, titled "Nagging is a universal concept".  Click the image for a larger view.

That's a very appropriate title, if you ask me!

You'll find all the 2024 finalists at the competition Web site.  Go enjoy them all!  You can also find the finalists from previous years' competitions.

Peter

"Society’s most oppressed minority group"? There's good reason for that

 

I'm disgusted and angry by complaints that the cancellation of a camp for "minor-attracted persons" (in other words, those of pedophile inclination) is somehow "oppression" or "discrimination".  On the contrary - I'm sure almost all parents reading this (and many others too) will regard it as sound common sense.  Why put our kids in proximity to a real and present danger to their well-being?

After local outcry canceled a camp for “minor-attracted persons” set for last weekend in Vermont, several organizations are publicly defending those who declare a sexual attraction to children.

MAP Union, or MU, which represents itself as “an international organization representing the interests of minor-attracted people and their allies,” sent a statement to local reporter Guy Page protesting the camp cancelation as “bullying” and violence against “society’s most oppressed minority group.”

. . .

The person calling himself “Percy” also told Bean, “We hope to provide a more balanced approach to MAP advocacy than groups like NAMBLA have been able to in the past.” NAMBLA is the North American Man-Boy Love Association, which effectively disintegrated after a series of FBI stings jailed members for abusing children and trafficking in illegal abuse images.

People sexually attracted to children are typically pornography addicts who often get sent to jail for trafficking in illegal abuse images. Porn businesses are complicit ... as they “deliberately insert transgender partners, children, and opposite-sex partners into pornography aimed at children and heterosexuals, in order to ‘see if you can convert somebody, right?'” a senior script writer for a Pornhub company disclosed in 2023.

. . .

“We do understand the alarm among local parents, but we are extremely unhappy about non-violent MAP community members being labeled as dangerous to children,” Brian Ribbon, a cofounder of MAP Union, said in a statement to The National Desk. “The idea that these people would for some reason try to attack children at the local school is outrageous and deeply offensive.”

There's more at the link, including some very unsavory ideals indeed (vulva-shaped chocolates?  Really?).

Here's a rule of thumb.  Any person or organization seeking to defend pedophiles - whether active, or only with that orientation - is defined by that action as being an immediate, clear and present danger to the safety of our children and the health of our communities.  That's the bottom line.  There is absolutely no excuse for such orientation.  Forget the complaint that "we were born that way - it's not our fault!"  What they're saying is that their tendency to exploit, manipulate, entice and coerce children into relationships they can't understand and to which they're not old enough to give consent, is "not their fault", but somehow OK.  

I also flatly don't believe those who claim that their sexual orientation towards "minors" is an attitude only, and not one that leads to actual physical relationships with them.  Are you trying to tell me that such persons never look at a kid walking down the sidewalk and fantasize about doing sexual things with/to them?  Is that OK with you?  If it is, I suggest you have a problem almost as large as the "minor-attracted person" themselves - particularly if you have kids of your own, and want to protect them from as they grow up.

Just "No!"  There is no place for pedophiles or "minor-attracted persons" in any normal, healthy society.  End of discussion.  (And well done to the people who canceled that camp!)

Peter

Memes that made me laugh 229

 

Gathered from around the Internet over the past week.  Click any image for a larger view.